Nikola Jokic's incredible performance this season is being overshadowed by voter fatigue and shifting narratives, sparking a debate over whether his sustained excellence will be enough to secure a fourth MVP.
Nikola Jokic himself recently admitted that he's playing the best basketball of his career, and the numbers back it up.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
| MIN: | 34.14 |
| PTS: | 32.47 (63.61%) |
| REB: | 5.21 |
| As: | 6 |
| ST: | 1.96 |
| BL: | 1.04 |
| TO: | 2.72 |
| GM: | 47 |
The Denver Nuggets superstar is putting up historic efficiency while continuing to dominate every aspect of the game. He leads the Nuggets as both a scorer and a playmaker.
Yet, despite his brilliance, he isn't the frontrunner for MVP.
The race has turned into a battle between Jokic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, with momentum seemingly shifting toward the Oklahoma City star.
While Jokic continues to redefine efficiency and elevate his team, the narrative surrounding the award suggests that voter fatigue may play a significant role.
After already winning the MVP twice and adding a Finals MVP to his resume, is Jokic being held to an unfair standard, or has Shai truly done enough to surpass him?
Jokic vs. SGA Stats
Jokic stats in the 2023-24 MVP season:
| MIN | 2P M/A | 3P M/A | FT M/A | REB | AS | ST | TO | BS | PTS | GP |
| 34:36 | 62.6% 739/1180 | 35.9% 83/231 | 81.7% 358/438 | 12.4 9.5/2.8 | 9.0 | 1.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 26.4 | 79 |
Jokic stats in the 2024-25 season:
| MIN | 2P M/A | 3P M/A | FT M/A | REB | AS | ST | TO | BS | PTS | GP |
| 36:22 | 59.7% 396/663 | 47.1% 88/187 | 81.3% 205/252 | 12.8 9.7/3.1 | 10.3 | 1.9 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 29.6 | 43 |
SGA stats in the 2023-24 MVP Runner-Up season:
| MIN | 2P M/A | 3P M/A | FT M/A | REB | AS | ST | TO | BS | PTS | GP |
| 34:00 | 57.6% 701/1218 | 35.3% 95/269 | 87.4% 567/649 | 5.5 4.7/0.9 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 30.1 | 75 |
SGA stats in the 2024-25 season:
| MIN | 2P M/A | 3P M/A | FT M/A | REB | AS | ST | TO | BS | PTS | GP |
| 34:30 | 59.4% 432/727 | 34.5% 91/265 | 90.1% 355/394 | 5.3 4.4/0.9 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 32.4 | 46 |
Shai has improved his scoring and three-point attempts, but his efficiency remains almost identical.
He's making 0.7 more threes per game than last season, but his percentage has barely moved. However, Shai has improved his scoring per game, a truly impressive 32 points per game.
For the third season in a row, Shai has averaged 30 points. This is an estimate of how great he is, but to be fair, this should not be connected to the MVP race.
His consistency in leading the team to first place in the Western Conference while maintaining such a high level is for the biggest praise, but MVP should be given if one is the most valuable player.
Currently analyzing many aspects, Jokic has an edge. However, the narrative seems to favor Shai.
Jokic has drastically improved his three-point shooting, increasing his attempts from 2.9 to 4.3 per game while raising his percentage from 35.9% to a staggering 47.9%, the second-best in the league behind Luke Kennard.
Nikola Jokic
| Team: |
Denver Nuggets |
| Position: | C |
| Age: | 29 |
| Height: | 208 cm |
| Weight: | 111 kg |
| Birth place: | Sombor, Serbia |
This evolution in his game adds another dimension to an already dominant player, making him virtually unstoppable.
His 30.0 points per game are more than Shaquille O'Neal ever averaged, his 13.1 rebounds surpass Tim Duncan's best, and his 10.1 assists are the highest ever for a center.
He's also shooting from deep more efficiently than any season Steph Curry has ever had.
Meanwhile, Shai is putting up 32.1 points per game, but his overall stats haven't drastically improved.
His scoring is elite, but does it outweigh Jokic's all-around impact? If the award is truly about the most valuable player, Jokic's case is overwhelming.
The Standings Factor
The standings argument also weakens Shai's case. While OKC has been ahead for most of the season, Denver's surge – led by Jokic's chemistry with Russell Westbrook—has them closing in on the top seeds.
If Denver climbs higher, it will take away Shai's biggest advantages. In previous MVP races, team success played a crucial role, and if Jokic's Nuggets finish near or above OKC, it will become to justify Shai's win.
Jokic vs. Gilgeous-Alexander Advanced stats comparison
| Stat | Nikola Jokic | Shai Gilgeous-Alexander |
| Offensive rating | 124.8 | 120.0 |
| Player Impact Estimate (PIE) | 21.1 | 20.5 |
| Net Rating | 17.5 | 12.0 |
| Effective Field Goal Percentage | 61.8% | 57.4% |
| True Shooting Percentage | 65.5% | 64.0% |
Jokic leads in most major advanced stats, reinforcing his dominance. Shai's Net Rating is superior, but Jokic's overall efficiency and impact are unmatched.
The LeBron James Comparison
This situation mirrors LeBron James' dominance in the early 2010s when he won four MVPs in five years (2009, 2010, 2012, 2013).
His statistical brilliance made him the obvious choice, yet voter fatigue did not play a role in the end, as LeBron won those awards.
Jokic finds himself in a similar position, where sustained excellence may work against him rather than for him. If LeBron wasn't penalized for being great, why should Jokic be?
The Narrative Factor
This race also recalls Joel Embiid's 2023 MVP win, where narrative played a bigger role than pure stats.
While Shai's case is strong, Jokic performs at a historic level. The question is: will voters recognize his dominance, or will they opt for a fresh storyline?
The MVP race isn't just about numbers – it's about perception, media influence, and voter sentiment.
As the season nears its conclusion, this debate will only intensify, making this one of the most intriguing MVP battles in years.
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